Fast NBP Monitor January 2026
The share of companies reporting unfilled job vacancies has slightly decreased compared to the previous quarter (to 42.1% from 42.7%). The growth of labor costs in SPN has slowed down (to 8.0% year-on-year from 11.6% year-on-year in the second quarter), remaining below the long-term average (9.7% year-on-year).
Employment in SPN in Q3 2025 slightly increased. Quarterly and annual employment change forecasts, however, have worsened. The average scale of planned salary increases has also decreased, although the percentage of companies intending to raise salaries has risen.
The situation in individual PKD departments remained varied: employment in annual terms decreased in 33 out of 76 departments. The dynamics of employment were negative in transport (-2.3% y/y compared to -2.9% y/y in Q2) and in trade (-0.6% y/y compared to 0.3% y/y). However, the number of employees in construction increased (2.6% compared to 2.2% in Q2), in services (1.8% y/y compared to 3.5% y/y), and in industry (0.5% y/y compared to 0.0% y/y).
In light of the SM NBP results in Q4 2025, the share of companies reporting unfilled job positions slightly decreased compared to the previous quarter (to 42.1% from 42.7%), remaining below the long-term median (43.5%). A decrease in this share was noted among large entities (to 62.1% from 64.5% in Q3) and small firms (to 24.1% from 26.1%), with a slight increase in medium-sized enterprises (to 46.4% from 46.0%). Transportation companies most frequently reported unfilled job positions (54.6%, unchanged compared to the previous quarter). The percentage of companies with vacancies fell in industry (by 3.3 percentage points to 45.5%), while it rose in services (by 2.6 percentage points to 37.1%), in trade (by 1.2 percentage points to 36.7%), and in construction (by 0.6 percentage points to 42.9%).
In Q3 2025, the growth of nominal labor productivity once again accelerated (to 8.2% y/y from 6.2% y/y in Q2) and for the first time since 2023 exceeded the growth of average labor costs (7.6% y/y). Over a longer horizon, the growth rate of productivity was, however, clearly lower than the growth rate of labor costs, leading to a gap between productivity and labor costs (-7.6% in Q3).
In Q3 2025, the growth of labor costs in SPN slowed down (to 8.0% y/y from 11.6% y/y in Q2) remaining below the long-term average (9.7% y/y). The decrease in the dynamics of other business operating costs was clearly smaller (to 3.3% y/y from 4.0% y/y), which resulted in the first slight decrease in the share of labor costs in operating costs in over two years (to 14.3% from 14.4%, seasonally adjusted). However, the share of labor costs was still high compared to historical data (long-term average: 12.6%).
