Labor Costs - NBP Quick Monitoring 04/2026
Record-high labor cost share in Polish companies (14.8%). Check out the NBP analysis: wage dynamics in services, wage pressure, and the lowest salary increase plans in 10 years.
Summary of the cost and wage situation in enterprises at the turn of 2025 and 2026, prepared on the basis of the published NBP data:
1. Cost dynamics and their structure
Increase in labor costs: In Q4 2025, labor cost dynamics accelerated to 9.0% y/y (from 8.0% in Q3), although it remained below the average of the last 10 years (9.8%).
Change in structure: With the simultaneous slowdown in the dynamics of other costs (from 3.3% to 1.5%), the share of labor costs in operating costs rose to a record 14.8%.
Role of industry: This increase in the share was driven almost entirely by the industrial sector.
2. Wages and employment
Main driver: The higher labor costs were due almost exclusively to wage growth (8.6% y/y).
Sector differentiation:
Services: A sharp increase in wage dynamics (from 7.0% to 13.6% y/y), mainly in IT, publishing, and central companies.
Trade: Wage growth accelerated to 7.9% y/y.
Industry, construction, and transport: A slowdown in wage dynamics was recorded.
3. Wage pressure and barriers (Q1 2026)
Intensification of the phenomenon: The share of firms feeling wage pressure increased to 65.2%. The highest pressure is in industry (67.7%), and it intensified most strongly in trade.
Firm size: The largest increase in wage pressure was recorded among large and medium-sized enterprises.
Labor costs as a barrier: Although less often indicated as a direct barrier to development (5.9% of firms), their perception as a problem still exceeds the historical average.
4. Forecasts and plans of enterprises
Raise plans: 31.1% of firms plan pay raises in the next quarter. Although this share is stable, it has increased among large firms (weighted by employment – 35.5%).
Raise size: The average planned raise fell to 4.4% (median 4.0%) – the lowest values in over a decade.
Conditions for wage growth: The most important factor enabling raises is an improvement in the company’s economic situation (55% of responses). Importantly, as many as 60% of enterprises believe that a significant increase in wages would require a "clear" improvement in their financial condition.
Key conclusion: The Polish economy is entering 2026 with a record share of labor costs in the structure of companies’ expenses, yet the pace of planned wage increases is clearly slowing, and enterprises are linking further wage growth to a real improvement in their financial results, rather than to market pressure alone.
