NBP Quick Monitoring 7/2026
Check the labor market analysis: slowing growth of labor costs, weakening wage pressure, as well as companies' salary increase plans and recruitment challenges in sectors.
Labor costs in the corporate sector in the first quarter: a visible slowdown
The growth rate of labor costs in the Non-Financial Corporate Sector (NFCS) slowed down in the first quarter of this year. This dynamics amounted to 6.7% y/y, which represents a noticeable decrease compared to the 9.0% y/y recorded in the fourth quarter of last year. The current result is significantly below the long-term average of 9.8% y/y.
Share of labor costs in companies' operating costs
In parallel, a clear increase in the dynamics of other operating costs was recorded – to 5.0% y/y (compared to 1.5% y/y in the previous quarter). As a result, the share of labor costs in companies' overall operating activity costs decreased to 14.5% (seasonally adjusted, from 14.8%).
Despite this reduction, this ratio remains high compared to historical data – for comparison, the long-term average is 12.7%.
Situation in sectors
The decline or relative stabilization of the share of employee expenditure in overall costs applied to almost all major branches of the economy.
The only exception was construction, where the share of labor costs rose significantly – from 16.2% to 18.1%. The main reasons for this growth were:
higher employment dynamics in the construction industry,
a decline in other operating costs, caused by a reduction in the scale of activity due to adverse weather conditions.
Salary forecasts in companies: a decline in wage pressure
With weakening wage pressure in the second quarter, there was a decrease in the percentage of enterprises planning salary increases in the upcoming quarter. This indicator dropped to 29.0% (compared to 30.8% in the first quarter) and remains significantly below the long-term average of 34.0%.
Planned increases and enterprise size
The decline in readiness to raise salaries was visible mainly in the SME sector, while large entities declared the opposite trend:
Small enterprises: drop from 29.8% to 28.1%,
Medium enterprises: drop from 35.6% to 35.1%,
Large enterprises: increase from 33.5% to 34.5%.
Due to the growth in large companies, the employment-weighted index recorded only a slight decline – to 35.2% (from 35.5%).
Salary increase plans in specific sectors of the economy
The percentage of companies planning an increase in the average salary dropped in most branches of the economy. The exception was the sector leader of growth – transport.
Sector of the economy | Share of companies planning increases (previous ➔ current) | Average size of planned increases (previous ➔ current) | |
Construction | 32.3% ➔ 27.3% | 4.8% ➔ 4.9% | |
Industry | 31.7% ➔ 29.6% | 4.3% ➔ 4.1% | |
Services | 28.2% ➔ 27.7% | 4.8% ➔ 5.3% | |
Trade | 29.1% ➔ 28.7% | 4.1% ➔ 4.3% | |
Transport | 38.3% ➔ 42.8% | 4.3% ➔ 4.0% |
Unfilled jobs and labor shortages
According to the results of the NBP Quick Monitoring, a slight increase in the percentage of enterprises reporting unfilled jobs was recorded in the second quarter – this indicator rose to 41.2% (compared to 40.8% in the first quarter).
Interestingly, despite recruitment problems, there was a decline in the indicator of companies treating labor shortages as a key barrier to development (decrease from 4.4% to 3.7%). This result is below the long-term median of 4.9%.
Vacancies by sectors of the economy
Sector of the economy | Share of companies with unfilled jobs (previous ➔ current) |
Transport | 52.1% ➔ 53.2% |
Industry | 45.4% ➔ 44.4% |
Construction | 41.7% ➔ 43.2% |
Trade | 31.8% ➔ 36.6% |
Reductions and growth in employment in companies: reasons for changes
The majority of enterprises covered by the survey made changes in the scale of employment. The percentage of companies reducing staff rose significantly, almost equaling the number of entities increasing staff (29% of companies with a decrease in employment vs 30% of companies with an increase).
Why did companies reduce employment?
The main factor of turnover was not dismissals for economic reasons, but natural staff turnover:
Voluntary resignations of employees: 59% of companies affected by the decline,
Decline in demand for products/services: 28%u200b,
Changes in the business model: 24%,
Adverse economic situation: 22%.
What determined the increase in employment?
Need to fill vacancies: 58% of companies increasing their team,
Overall growth of the company: 43%,
Increase in the number of orders: 26%,
Demand for new skills: 19%.
Employee recruitment: main challenges and difficulties
Acquiring suitable staff remains a significant challenge for employers. Companies pointed to the following as the most important recruitment barriers:
Lack of candidates with suitable qualifications – as many as 85% of companies looking for employees considered this problem important or very important.
Excessively high financial expectations of candidates – pointed out by 78% of the surveyed entities.
The largest deficit of labor was recorded in the group of skilled production workers, where problems with acquiring staff intensified further compared to the previous year.
